I know there has been articles for the past year or so stating that cable systems may be moving towards mpeg-4 in 2009. There were even a few posts about it on this board late last year.
However I was just reading through a whole bunch of new articles from this month showing that many HD Networks will start broadcasting in MPEG-4 this month or by the end of the year. With that being said, some cable systems will convert those channels too MPEG-2 for now, while others may add new HD channels / run field trials on existing channels that go to mpeg-4 in MPEG-4 in some locations.
The first HD mpeg-4 network has launched this month was the Hallmark Moving Channel. This HD 1080i Feed is being broadcasted in mpeg-4 with a bit rate of 8.5 MBPS. With this compression the network states their mpeg-4 broadcast has quality equivalent if not greater then the standard 19 MBPS mpeg-2 feeds.
The next round of MPEG 4 launches comes on June 30th with HBO. HBO has announced that all 26 of its stations will begin broadcasting in MPEG-4.
Starz has also just announced that they two will be going MPEG-4 before years end and with this will begin offering most all of their channels in HD.
Discovery Networks is also looking at the possibility of moving over to MPEG-4.
Deployment of mpeg-4 capable cable boxes has already started this year and by the end of 2009 it is expected that all new cable box deployments will be mepg-4 capable boxes. In addition, late this year and early 2009 we may see the first cable system field trials of mpeg-4 base cable systems, at least on hd channels.
There is some speculation that comcast may be one of the first cable providers to test mpeg-4 and would likely be in the New England area.
Well, that was my quick summery of a couple articles dated from this month. Here is the link to one of the best ones I read: http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6565754.html
I found that news fascinating, and it sounds like a great future is coming for HD and cable systems. It seems the high quality we saw before channel squeezing started will return, in addition it gives the ability to expand HD offerings with out the need of SDV. As with mpeg-4 you can now fit more then 2 HD stations in the same amount of bandwidth as 1 mpeg-2 stations without the loss of quality.
With youtube support coming later this year to TiVo which will likely enable mpeg-4 support on the S3 and THD, it looks like tivo will be ready for the change over=)